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Will Trump Increase American Jobs?
in United States
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positive:
-developing local manufacturing and other insourcing capabilities.
-rural insourcing trend
-trade war extra exports wins
negative:
-potential higher cost of goods result in higher consumer prices and lower consumer demand
-trade wars backlash
-returned jobs never return, but get automated with robotics and cognitive computing
-the wall is build with tocik17 idea of illigal immigrants
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I guess we have a good indication;
"Private sector employment grew by nearly 300,000 last month, according to payroll giant ADP, in another strong sign for the economy.
The private sector added 298,000 jobs in February, including 104,000 at small businesses. That total included 51,000 jobs at small businesses with between one and 19 employees, and 53,000 at small businesses with between 20 and 49 employees. Medium-size companies with between 50 and 499 employees added 122,000 jobs in February. Large companies added 72,000 jobs, including 28,000 at businesses with between 500 and 999 employees and 43,000 jobs at businesses with 1,000 employees or more.
...
“It was a blowout number, close to 300K,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, which compiles the monthly national employment with ADP. “That’s three times the rate of monthly job growth necessary to absorb the growth in the working age population. That means any slack that is still remaining in the labor market is rapidly being absorbed. We’re going from a labor market that a few years ago was plagued by unemployment and underemployment, and you can characterize it as being at full employment. If the trend lines continue and we continue to create jobs at this pace, then the economy and the labor market will be very, very tight.”
He noted that job growth was broad based and there has even been some growth in the mining and energy sector, which had lost jobs in recent years because of the decline in oil prices. “We saw a pretty significant downdraft in that sector for a substantive period, but that now appears to be over,” said Zandi."
https://www.accountingtoday.com/news/adp-finds-private-sector-added-298-000-jobs-in-february
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/03/10/trump-keeps-claiming-hes-created-u-s-jobs-since-election-day-not-so/?utm_term=.bab92a53d9da
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I think that we can agree that he helped the stock market so far, because it is up since election, but job growth so far is not fair to atteibute to Trump.
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- Walt Disney
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Not sure if everyone recognizes that level of investment and this timeline will exceed Trump's presendial tenure.
additionally, we need to recognize that the types of jobs we are looking to insource will be high tech. There is a drastic shortage of that talent, and we need to rely on immigrants and visa holders. trump is cracking down on all of that, so we will just have to rely more on a sub-par tech talent locally at higher prices (supply and demand microeconomics).
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I don't agree that we have any shortage of acceptable high tech workers. I believe this is a ruse that tech firms have used to justify the flow of immigrants that will work very much in-demand jobs for substantially less than US workers.
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1) I agree that we should develop strategic capabilities for certain very specific core competencies. That will take time and money, and may result in higher prices. Ultimately that part may result in a few more high skilled jobs domestically, but if prices ate higher then it may get offset by lower product demand and therefore less overall jobs due to lower consumers buying power.
2) walmart stuff should continue to be outsourced. Looks like you agree as well.
3) high skilled tech talent required for next generation of technology definitely has a shortage domestically and predicted to deeoen the gap. I am not referring to generic computer programmers hired out of school. there is tremendous competition for these type of resources. Thats why many companies open up development and R&D centers all over the world. It's a talent war play, not a cost saving play as a primary motivator.
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For example, in 2013, Foxconn announced it would create 500 jobs at a new high-tech factory in central Pennsylvania. The factory was never built, and the jobs never came. Yet the company recently announced a plan to invest $7 billion and hire up to 50,000 workers — a plan that Trump then touted.
We took a look at ExxonMobil’s investment program, and a host of other corporate decisions that Trump falsely touts as a fulfillment of his promise to bring jobs back to the United States. We’ll keep a running tally, and update the list as necessary.
There are numerous examples in the report
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3) I disagree entirely that there is a shortage of talent. If there is any shortage, it is created by tech firms unwilling to pay what the position is worth. Consider the following findings;
"
- The flow of guestworkers has increased over the past decade and
continues to rise (the rate of increase dropped briefly with the
economic collapse of 2008, but the flow of guestworkers has since
continued its rapid upward pace).
- The annual inflows of guestworkers amount to one-third to one-half the number of all new IT job holders."
http://www.epi.org/publication/bp359-guestworkers-high-skill-labor-market-analysis/The tech shortage is a myth perpetuated by big business to increase the flow of cheap foreign labor. See also;
The Myth of America's Tech Talent Shortage
The Myth of the Tech Talent Shortage
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a) I agree that number of college graduates in STEM is available to enter the workforce and that is an important part of the talent strategy for those who are looking to hire at scale. More and more large enterprises invest in development centers across the country. Even major Indian outsourcing firms all have a strategy of building out domestically and relying less on Indian talent. That includes deep campus recruiting.
your provided articles make sense, and they deal mostly with campus recruitment.
while college-based talent pool is good, many of the specific niche skills require experienced hires. That goes by laws of supply and demand. If you cut the supply to limit visa holders, the already high prices go even higher. The extra cost is passed alomg to consumers as companies are often not willing to reduce their profit margins.
http://www.cio.com/article/3068595/leadership-management/it-talent-gap-an-existential-threat-in-need-of-new-tactics.html
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- for technology and other strategic capabilities it is important to develop made in America capabilites. Continued outsourcing to China and India is a a shortaighted approach. I do agree with ale5 that it. Ay cause spikes in prices due supply and demand, but longer term it will balance out and will result in a better US economy with more higher-paying american jobs.
- leveraging college grads is important, and there is a large available talent pool
-there is reality of scarce talent for many specialized skills. People with these skills will likely benefit due to visa restrictions and limiting foreign competion. However, that is an opporunity to further leverage STEM grads and retrain workforce to even out the supply.
overall, I believe Trump will create more high-skilled American jobs, and it maybe a rocky road to get there.
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- Walt Disney
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See also;
The fix is in: Proof that H1B visa abuse is rampant
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- Walt Disney
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@ale5 That's very gracious of you. Such comments on an internet forum are exceedingly rare and very much appreciated. Thank you.
I believe we should try to attract the best talent from around the world; that it will make this a better more prosperous country. Although the defenders of the current immigration system purport this to be their goal, the system they've devised is so easily abused I have to believe it was deliberately designed for abuse. Correcting it may cause the prices of some services to rise, but I maintain that the current prices are artificially low and/or profits are artificially high because immigrants will work for well below the market value. There are benefits to addressing this offense. First; it will force the companies who are manipulating the system to become more efficient. (Indian programmers are not known for their efficiency and tend to compare negatively to their American counterparts if for no other reason than English the native language of the Americans.) Second; as previously mentioned, visa-holders willing to work for substandard wages depresses wages throughout the industry making it a less attractive field to pursue. I believe this is a serious problem that needs to be addressed. In the end, I believe correcting this situation will benefit our nation.
Thanks again for your kind words and generosity. I too found our debate challenging.
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